Open Left: Chris Bowers:

Here is the campaign at a glance:

Victory Chart
Obama needs one of these states to win it all

State EV’s Obama % McCain % Margin # Polls
Virginia 13 52.5% 44.5% +8.0% 2
Colorado 9 51.0% 46.0% +5.0% 1
Nevada* 5 50.0% 45.0% +5.0% 1
North Carolina 15 49.0% 45.3% +3.7% 4
Ohio 20 47.7% 45.7% +2.0% 3
Missouri 11 47.0% 46.0% +1.0% 3
Florida 27 48.0% 47.5% +0.5% 4

* = If Obama only wins Nevada among these seven, that would force a 269-269 tie, which would almost certainly result in a victory in the House of Representatives, given the large Democratic lead there

Electoral College: Obama 306, McCain 171 Toss-up 61 (270 to win)

(Dark Blue (277): Obama +7.0% or more
Lean Blue (29): Obama +2.6%-+6.9%
White / Toss-up (61): Obama +2.5% to McCain +2.5%
Lean Red (35): McCain +2.6%-+6.9%
Dark Red (136): McCain +7.0% or more)

Complete Tracking poll average

Org Obama McCain
ABC** 53% 44%
Gallup* 51.5% 43.0%
GWU 48% 47%
Hotline 47% 41%
Rasmussen 50% 46%
R2000 50% 42%
TIPP 46.9% 40.9%
Zogby 50.3% 42.4%
Mean 49.6% 43.3%

* = Gallup is an average of their expanded and traditional likely voter models
** = Yesterday’s numbers

I notice two things about these numbers. First, Obama is well ahead, with only 14 days left. Second, the number of states where he holds a statistically significant lead has shrunk to its lowest point since October 1st, at least in my reckoning. While that isn’t the most heartwarming trend, with only 14 days left, there is good reason to be thankful that Obama built such a large advantage earlier in the month.

Chris Bowers :: Presidential Forecast 10/21: 14 Days Left